How long have you actually got?
Runway to zero is the number nobody can act on. This gives you the date the decision has to be made instead.
First conversation to cash in the bank. Five months is a common planning figure for a small round and it is optimistic for a first one. Terms get worse the closer you are to zero, which is the real cost of starting late.
An estimate for planning from the numbers you enter. Not accounting, tax or financial advice, and not a forecast of your bank statement.
Nobody runs a business to zero
Runway is cash divided by burn, and every calculator on the internet gets that right. The reason none of them changes what anyone does is that they answer a question you cannot act on. The date the bank account empties is not a decision point. It is the point after which there are no decisions left.
What matters is earlier, and it moves depending on what you would actually do. Raising money takes months from the first conversation to cleared funds, and the terms get worse the closer you are to the wall — an investor looking at nine months of cash is having a different conversation from one looking at six weeks. Cutting costs sounds instant and is not: redundancies cost money before they save any, in notice periods and final pay, so the cut you make when you can no longer afford it can shorten your runway before it lengthens it. Selling the business is slowest of all, and a buyer who can see your bank balance is not a buyer you negotiate with.
Subtract the lead time of whichever of those you would reach for, and you get a date that is usually months earlier than the one on the chart. That is the date to put in a calendar with a reminder on it. Everything after it is the same set of options with worse pricing.
The other thing worth saying plainly: if collections currently exceed spending, you do not have infinite runway. You have a buffer, and it has a size. Knowing that collections can fall eleven percent before you start burning is useful. Being told your runway is unlimited is not, and it is the sort of thing that reads very differently two months later.
What this tool does not do
It reads one typical month and projects it forward, which is the assumption that breaks first - most small businesses have a seasonal shape, a lumpy payer or an annual bill that a single month hides. The lead times behind the decision date are planning conventions rather than measured facts, and the tool says so on screen; if you know your own number, the override exists for that. Growth is shown as the optimistic case and is deliberately never the headline. Nothing you type leaves your browser.
- Seasonality, lumpy collections, annual or quarterly bills, or any month that is not the one you typed
- Tax, VAT or payroll-tax timing, which for many businesses is the largest single cash event in a quarter
- Whether you can actually raise, what terms you would get, or whether anyone would buy the business
- Debt covenants, repayment schedules, or a facility being withdrawn - which is often what turns a slow problem into a fast one
- Your receivables in any detail - it takes collections as a single number and cannot see who owes you what
- Whether the cut you are planning is legal or contractual where you are - notice periods and consultation rules are not in here
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between runway and the decision date?
Runway is how long until the bank account hits zero. The decision date is how long until the thing you would do about it stops being available. If you have six months of cash and raising takes five, your decision date is one month away, not six. Nobody runs a business to zero, so the second number is the one that belongs in a calendar.
Why does the tool refuse to say my runway is unlimited?
Because cash-flow positive at today's numbers is a statement about today's numbers. If collections exceed spend by 4%, one lost customer reverses it. Rather than reporting infinity, the tool reports the buffer — how far collections can fall before you start burning again — because that is the fragile thing and it is what you would want to watch.
Why does it ask what share of my costs is payroll?
Because every runway calculator offers "cut costs 15%" as a lever and the honesty of that depends entirely on the answer. If payroll is a quarter of spend, there is non-payroll room to find first. If it is four fifths, a 15% cut is a redundancy round — which costs cash before it saves any, in notice and final pay, and takes weeks you have to have in hand. Cutting too late can shorten runway before it lengthens it.
Should I use the growth scenario?
Look at it, plan on the flat one. A compounding growth assumption is the most common reason a runway figure turns out to have been wrong, because the month growth stops is usually the same month everything else is going wrong. The flat number is the one to make commitments against; the growth number tells you what the upside looks like if nothing breaks.
Where do the lead times come from?
They are planning conventions, not measured facts, and the tool says so. Five months for a raise, two for a cost reduction, six for a sale. If you have your own number — because you have raised before, or your notice periods are contractual — use the override. The point of the figure is to be roughly right about the shape of your timeline rather than precisely wrong about the date.